Monday, December 03, 2007

On hold

After wondering and thinking through the various possibilities for what seems like years, I feel like we have entered a period of wait and see.

Debt/finance issues

Well, the subprime thing is keeping us all entertained with volatility in the markets. Doomers pat themselves on the back one day for their clairvoyance, and the cheerleaders laud the inevitability of American capitalism the next. My gut feeling is that this isn't over, and I can't say that the few months since it all started have changed our economic situation any, really. So we'll wait and see.

Energy too seems to not be very exciting. Except recalling that oil was NOT priced in the 90sUSD range a year ago, and 93 gasoline was NOT 3.40 a year ago.
Similarly, Prudhoe Bay has not been rediscovered, the North Sea has not been rediscovered, Ghawar is not her sexy teenaged self, and Cantarell has not crawled back from the edge. China and India are still there, with their billions. So, we'll wait and see.

And truthfully, infrastructure, well I just don't know. Detroit has greenfields in its abandoned core, but Dallas is planning billions in I 35 upgrades. We'll just have to wait and see.

On all of these things, my vibe is that we are far from fundamentally sound, but perhaps I am using too conservative a measure. Once again, we'll just have to wait and see.

Of course the election ought to be entertaining.

1 comment:

Pat said...

If you're interested in a lively debate on these issues, I'd suggest looking at, the forums.